When Theresa May met Angela Merkel in Berlin on Wednesday, Bio-Currywurst was probably not on the menu (or at least one would hope so).
In a pre-dinner press conference, the German Chancellor agreed with the British Prime Minister that more time is needed before Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty can be triggered. She also did not dismiss the possibility of a deal that combines free trade with controls on immigration. However, Angela Merkel also added that there will be no negotiations until Article 50 has been invoked.
Before setting off on her EU travels, Theresa May announced through a spokesperson that the UK is giving
up its planned presidency of the European Council (due to start in July
2017) to focus on Brexit negotiations. The
decision was reached in a phone call between Theresa May and Donald Tusk, the President of the EU Council.
When Theresa May met François Hollande the following evening in Paris, the French President was not quite so accommodating. Although he did recognise that the UK needs more time before it can trigger Article 50, he was very clear about France's position on free trade. If the UK wants access to the single market it cannot put immigration controls on EU citizens, i.e. free trade cannot be granted without free movement of people.
In case you are wondering what was on the menu in Paris: lobster salad as a starter, veal with spinach as a main course, vanilla mousse with strawberries and cheese for dessert. Bon appétit!
Last Friday I was wondering who would be the next politician to quit.
I didn't have to wait long to find out. As I turned on the BBC World Service at lunch time today, I was greeted with the breaking news that Andrea Leadsom was pulling out of the Tory leadership race.
Officially this is in the interest of the country: to speed up the process and in view of Theresa May's greater support amongst the parliamentary party. However, there are suggestions that the media coverage of the weekend may have been too much to handle. In case you missed it, in an interview to The Times, Mrs Leadsom basically said that being a mum gave her an advantage over Theresa May, who doesn't have children. Needless to say the statement did not go down well.
Or perhaps she was put off by yesterday's booing during Andy Murray's victory speech. When Andy highlighted David Cameron's presence on Centre Court and commented on the difficulties of being a PM, the Wimbledon crowd booed.
So now everything is in place for Theresa May to become the next Prime Minister. Bearing in mind what has happened so far, anything could happen between now and Wednesday, when David Cameron is set to step down.
Of course, the main question remains: to Brexit or not to Brexit?
In the words of Theresa May this morning: "Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it."
However, many in the UK and in the EU are praying and hoping that Brexit can still be avoided.
At the weekend the UK government turned down a petition signed by 4 million people for a second referendum.
The latest initiative is a letter signed by over 1,000 British barristers urging the prime minister to allow parliament to decide whether the UK should leave
the EU. They argue that the referendum result is advisory, as it did not set a threshold necessary to leave the EU. The barristers propose that "the government establishes a
royal commission or an equivalent independent body to receive evidence
and report on the benefits, costs and
risks of triggering article 50 to the UK as a whole, and to all of its
constituent populations. The parliamentary vote should not take place
until the commission has reported.”
Given that this latest recommendation is extremely reasonable and responsible, we can conclude that the politicians in Westminster will almost certainly ignore it.
On 23 June the UK voted to leave the EU with 52% of the votes for Leave versus 48% for Remain.
While the majority of the country voted to leave, Scotland, Northern Ireland, London (and Gibraltar) voted to remain.
Nigel Farage, one of the main promoters of the leave campaign, announced in his victory speech that no bullet had been fired.
Just days before the referendum, labour MP Jo Cox died after being shot and stabbed by a man shouting "Britain first".
As the referendum results became apparent
- The pound sterling fell to its lowest level in 31 years.
- The markets crashed.
- David Cameron announced his resignation as Conservative Party leader and UK Prime Minister.
- Scotland and Northern Ireland voiced their firm intention to remain in the EU, potentially leading to the dismemberment of the United Kingdom.
- The ratings agencies downgraded the UK's credit rating.
When asked about the £350 million per week that had been promised to the NHS instead of the EU - one of the key messages of the Leave campaign - Nigel Farage admitted that it was a mistake and that he couldn't guarantee it.
The other lies of the Leave campaign soon became apparent:
Immigration levels cannot be reduced even if the UK leaves the EU.
The Leave campaigners now want preferential access to the single market, but the UK cannot get this if it does not accept freedom of movement.
Once voters started to become aware of the politicians' lies and of the devastating effects of the Leave vote on the economy and on the domestic political landscape, #Regrexit started to trend on Twitter.
So far 4 million people have signed a petition calling for a second referendum on the EU.
On 28 June Nigel Farage spoke (for the last time?) and was booed at the European Parliament.
On 28 June at an informal meeting of the European Council (for the first time in 40 years without the UK PM), the 27 leaders of the member states announced that there would be no negotiations of any kind until the UK formally notified its intention to withdraw from the EU, i.e. until it triggered Article 50.
They also made it clear that there would be no compromise on freedom of movement.
On 30 June, in a shock announcement, Boris Johnson, a strong promoter of the Leave campaign and aspiring leader of the Tories, announced in a press statement that he would not stand for the Tory leadership contest.
So who will be the next conservative party leader?
Here are the contestants:
Teresa May - home secretary and supporter of Remain.
Michael Gove - justice secretary and Brexit campaigner.
Stephen Crabb - work and pensions secretary and supporter of Remain.
Andrea Leadsom - energy minister and promoter of Leave campaign.
Liam Fox - former cabinet minister and Brexit campaigner.
Meanwhile, the labour party is in disarray. Jeremy Corbyn, the party leader, has been repeatedly encouraged to leave (including by David Cameron "For heaven's sake man, go!") but he insists he's not going anywhere. Labour MPs even passed a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn.
The Liberal Democrats party has reported that people are joining them at a rate of one a
minute following leader Tim Farron’s commitment to fight to rejoin the
EU.
Finally, the referendum result is not legally binding in UK law and alone does not trigger the UK's departure from the EU. That has to be done under the withdrawal process laid down in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Once
notice is given by the PM, there is a two-year deadline to negotiate an exit deal.
Please join me for the next instalments.
